What Are the Chances That Trump's Gaza Plan Will Be Effective?

Hamas's conditional acceptance of the US president's Gaza ceasefire plan last Friday has been received global support and is the closest Israel and Hamas have got over the past 24 months toward stopping the fighting within the Gaza Strip.

How Close Are We to an Agreement?

Hamas's incomplete support of the US proposal marks the nearest mediators have reached over the last several months toward a full conclusion to the war inside the Gaza Strip. However, they are still distant from a settlement.

Trump's multi-point initiative to stop the conflict stipulates for the group free every captive over 72 hours, surrender ruling power to an international authority chaired by the US president, and disarm. In return, Israeli forces would step-by-step withdraw its forces from the Gaza Strip and release over one thousand Palestinian prisoners.

The deal will also mean a surge of humanitarian aid into Gaza, some areas of which are facing famine, and reconstruction funds to the Palestinian territory, that has been nearly completely decimated.

Hamas only agreed to three points: the freeing of every captive, the surrendering of control and the pullout of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. The group declared the remaining parts of the agreement should be discussed together with other Palestinian parties, as it is a component of a joint national approach.

Effectively, this means the group seeks more discussions regarding the more difficult aspects of the US plan, specifically the demand for its disarmament, and a clear timetable regarding Israeli troop pullout.

Where and When Will Negotiations Happen?

Delegates have traveled to Cairo to work out specifics to close the divide between the two sides.

Discussions begin tomorrow and it is anticipated to produce conclusions over the next several days, be they successful or not.

Trump shared an image of a chart of Gaza on Saturday night that showed the line up to which Israeli troops ought to pull back stating if the group consents to the terms, that the ceasefire would begin right away. The US president is eager to stop the conflict as it comes its second anniversary and prior to the Nobel prize committee announces the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize on 10 October, which is a widely known preoccupation of his.

The Israeli prime minister announced a deal to secure the return of Israeli hostages back home should preferably take place over the next few days.

What Gaps Are Left?

Both Hamas and Israel have been cautious their positions going into negotiations.

The group has repeatedly declined to lay down its arms during previous talks. It has given no word on if its position has shifted on this, even as it principally agrees to Trump’s plan, with conditions. Trump and Israel have made it clear that there exists limited flexibility regarding the disarmament demand and are determined to bind Hamas with binding language in any agreement moving forward.

Hamas also said it agreed to surrendering authority over Gaza to a technocratic administration, as outlined by the Trump plan. However, in a statement, Hamas specified it would agree to a Palestinian expert-led administration, rather than the global authority that Trump laid out in its plan.

The Israeli government has also sought to keep the matter of its troop withdrawal ambiguous. Just hours after announcing Trump’s plan during a shared media briefing in Washington last week, the prime minister released a video assuring Israelis that soldiers would remain across much of Gaza.

On Saturday night, Netanyahu reiterated that forces would stay in Gaza, stating that hostages would be returned while the Israeli military would remain “deep inside the strip”.

The prime minister's stance appears to conflict with the requirement in Trump’s plan that Israeli forces completely pull out from the territory. Hamas will demand guarantees that Israel will completely leave and that if the group surrenders its arms, Israeli troops will not re-enter the strip.

Negotiators must close these differences, obtaining firm, unambiguous terms on disarmament from the group. They must also show to Hamas that the Israeli government will truly withdraw from the territory and that there are international guarantees that will compel Israel to comply to the terms of the deal.

The disagreements could be reconciled, and the United States will undoubtedly pressure the two sides to reach a deal. However, the talks have got close to an agreement previously abruptly failing multiple times in the past two years, making both sides cautious of declaring victory before pen is on paper.

Valerie Hale
Valerie Hale

Technology enthusiast and business strategist with over a decade of experience in digital innovation.

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