🔗 Share this article

The populist billionaire has conferred with Czech President Petr Pavel and is set to consult with different faction representatives as he undertakes the complex task of forming a stable government subsequent to his ANO party won the election without achieving an decisive mandate.

Election Results

Final tallies revealed ANO captured 34.5% of ballots cast from the weekend polling, equating to a initial 80 seats in the bicameral assembly. The moderate conservative bloc headed by outgoing Prime Minister Petr Fiala placed second with 23.4%.

"I've committed to present the president an approach that will follow national and EU legislation," Babiš announced before Sunday's discussions began.

Leadership Obstacles

Although hailing the "landmark outcome" as "the zenith" of his political career, Babiš faces significant obstacles both to take the leadership role and to obtain and sustain support for the one-party cabinet he has suggested.

Multiple political groups have publicly dismissed entering a coalition with ANO, forcing the billionaire to seek backing from minor right-leaning parties. "We're initiating talks with the SPD and the Motorists, and pursue a independent cabinet under ANO," he stated.

Policy Positions

Babiš, ranked as the nation's seventh wealthiest individual with an estimated net worth of $3.9 billion, campaigned on commitments to quickened expansion, boosted income and senior payments and lower taxes. He also vowed to oppose the EU's immigration agreement and green deal, and to terminate the shells-for-Ukraine initiative, instead backing Ukraine only through EU channels.

Prospective Supporters

Babiš's movement holds several overlapping positions with the far-right SPD, which similarly rejects EU emission and migration rules – as does the compact right-leaning Drivers group.

The more extreme Moscow-friendly, anti-alliance, anti-bloc SPD also campaigned on a "Czexit" commitment to exit Czechia from the union, which Babiš has completely dismissed. He has consistently maintained his party is "supportive of Europe, and supportive of the defense pact".

Bargaining Positions

The Drivers faction and the SPD have expressed openness to discussions with ANO, but it continues ambiguous how far any group will prefer to support a Babiš-led minority cabinet instead of pursuing a binding coalition accord – or which timeframe such support might endure.

Government observers commented that the SPD's ballot percentage was noticeably diminished than the anticipated percentage prior to voting, meaning its negotiating position in negotiations concerning support arrangement would not be as influential as initially anticipated.

Constitutional Considerations

Even if Babiš is finally successful to demonstrate to the head of state – who beat Babiš in recent head of state voting – with a multi-party agreement amounting to a 101-seat majority in parliament, his problems may persist.

The head of state announced ahead of polling that he would not name any cabinet members who sought Czechia's withdrawal from the EU or from Nato. He has also mentioned he was seeking guidance from lawyers regarding a potential ethical concern related to Babiš.

European Context

EU populist politicians including the Hungarian prime minister, who wrote online that "Facts have triumphed!", and France's Marine Le Pen, who said "nationalist groups" were being "invited to lead across European nations", have celebrated the outcome.

However, although ANO is part of the nationalist European parliamentary group and Babiš has described himself as an admirer of Orbán, the EU's disruptor-in-chief, it is unclear how far he will associate with the Eurosceptic movement.

Analyst Perspectives

Government experts say Babiš's approach is more practical than dogmatic and that he is unlikely to pick a major confrontation with the EU as long as the Czechia depends on bloc support and the billionaire's businesses continue to benefit from the bloc.

Government structures are also expected to limit the leader domestically, with drastic alterations expected to be impeded by the senate, which can reject any suggested polling regulation or fundamental law amendments and must approve judges appointed to the constitutional court.